Market Volatility Statement

Volatility is normal

Equity markets experience routine intra-year drawdowns and occasional severe declines. Bond markets fluctuate with interest rates, credit spreads and inflation expectations. Cash and short-duration instruments fluctuate less but lose real value to inflation.

Past performance is not a guarantee

Historical returns, including those used as default assumptions in our calculators, are not guarantees or predictions of future performance. The distribution of possible outcomes is wider than any single backtest suggests.

Sequence-of-returns risk

The order in which returns occur matters greatly when contributions or withdrawals are happening. A poor run of returns near retirement can permanently impair a portfolio that "averages" the same return as a luckier one.

Behavior dominates math

Most investors underperform their own investments because of behavioral mistakes — selling at lows, chasing winners, abandoning a written plan. A modest plan you follow generally beats an optimal plan you abandon.

What we do

• Use moderate, defensible default return assumptions.
• Expose return and inflation toggles so users can run downside scenarios.
• Avoid market-timing tips, single-stock speculation and fear-of-missing-out framing.